Books and Monographs

 

• Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2011.

• Requisites and Consequences of Technological Change in Contemporary China. Stanford, CA: Northeast Asia-United States Forum, 1985. (With David Bachman).

• Modernizing China’s Electronics Industry: Prospects for US Business. Stanford, CA: Northeast Asia-United States Forum, 1985.

• An Introduction to Education in the People’s Republic of China and US-China Educational Exchanges, Revised Edition. Washington, DC: US-China Education Clearinghouse, 1982. (With Linda Reed).

• Higher Education and Research in the People’s Republic of China: Institutional Profiles. Washington, DC: US-China Education Clearinghouse, 1981.

• Survey Summary: Students and Scholars from the People’s Republic of China in the United States, Spring 1981. Washington, DC: US-China Education Clearinghouse, 1981. (With Linda Reed).

United States-China Relations in 1979: Agreements, Protocols, Accords, and
Understandings. Chinese Law and Government XIV:1 (Spring 1981). (With Victor H. Li.).
Higher Education in the People’s Republic of China. Stanford, CA: Northeast Asia-
United States Forum, 1981. (Editor and contributor).
China’s Quest for Independence: Policy Evolution in the 1970s. Boulder, CO:
Westview Press, 1980. (Editor and contributor).
Scientific and Technical Chinese, Volumes I and II. Stanford, CA: US-China Relations
Program, 1978 (with Kung-yi Kao, Carl Crook, and Ernest Chin).
Politics and Policymaking in the People’s Republic of China, 1954-55. Ph.D.
Dissertation, Stanford University, 1977.
China’s Energy Policies and Resource Development. Stanford, CA: US-China Relations
Program, 1977.

Articles
“Global Trends 2025: Implications for South Korea and the US-ROK Alliance,” in Byung Kwan Kim, Gi-Wook Shin, and David Straub, Editors, Beyond North Korea: Future Challenges to South Korea’s Security (Stanford, CA: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, 2011), pp. 249-261.
“How China Views US Nuclear Policy,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists web edition,
May 20, 2011 at http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-china-views-us-nuclear-policy.
“Alternate Trajectories of the Roles and Influence of China and the United States in
Northeast Asia and the Implications for Future Power Configurations,” in Gordon Flake, Editor, One Step Back?: Reassessing an Ideal Security State for Northeast Asia 2025 (Washington, DC: The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, March 2011), pp. 117-135.
“Analysis in the U.S. Intelligence Community: Missions, Masters, and Methods,” in
Baruch Fischhoff and Cherie Chauvin, Editors, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2011, pp. 3-27.
“Worrying About Washington: China’s Views on the US Nuclear Posture Review,”
The Nonproliferation Review 18:1 (March 2011), pp. 51-68. Chinese translation published in Meiguo Wenti Yanjiu [Fudan American Review] 2010/2, May 2011, pp. 16-35.
“What Hu Jintao Wants To Know,” Foreign Policy January-February 2011, pp. 42-43.
“Don’t Make the Wikileaks Problem Worse,” McClatchy-Tribune News Service,
January 18, 2011 (with Roger George).
“Office of the Director of National Intelligence: Promising Start Despite Ambiguity,
Ambivalence, and Animosity,” in Roger Z. George and Harvey Rishikof, Editors, The National Security Enterprise: Navigating the Labyrinth. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2011, pp. 139-155.
“Desafios y alternativas: factores y decisiones que determinaran nuestro futuro”
(Challenges and Choices: Drivers and Decisions that will Shape our Future), in Jose Felix Tezanos, Editor, Incertidumbres, Retos Y Potencialidadaes Del Siglo XXI: Grandes Tendencias Internacionales. Madrid: Editorial Sistema, 2010, pp. 13-29.
“Five Years Later, A Stronger Intelligence Community,” The Washington Post, April
30, 2010 (with Mary Margaret Graham).
“Intelligence Analysis and Dissemination,” in Intelligence: Gathering, Analysis, &
Dissemination. Charlottesville, VA: Miller Center of Public Affairs, 2010, pp. 52-73.
“Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security, Lecture 3: Anticipating
Opportunities and Using Intelligence to Shape the Future,” Payne Lecture, October 21, 2009, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/evnts/5859/lecture_text.pdf.
“Strategies of Influence: New Challenges, New Possibilities,” Naval War College, June
17, 2009, http://www.usnwc.edu/events/csf/Multimedia/CSFMedia.aspx.
“Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security, Lecture 2: Spies Collect
Data, Analysts Provide Insight,” Payne Lecture, May 19, 2009, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/evnts/5763/Payne_Lecture_No_2_Final–5-19-09.pdf
“Energy, Geopolitics, and Security,” Harvard University, April 22, 2009,
http://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/cepr/Papers/Geopolitics%20flyer%20final%20rev5-07.pdf.
“Enhancing South Korea’s Security: The US Alliance and Beyond,” March 19, 2009,
http://ksp.stanford.edu/events/enhancing_south_korea_security_the_us_alliance_and_beyond/.
“Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security, Lecture 1: Myths, Fears, and
Expectations,” Payne Lecture, March 11, 2009, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/evnts/5628/Payne_Lecture_No_1_Final–3-11-09.pdf.
“The United States and the Islamic World in 2025.” Brookings Institution,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2009/02_security_grand/02_security_grand.pdf.
“Challenges of US Diplomacy in East Asia.” Executive Lecture Forum Addresses
2000-2001 (September 2001).
“Frustrations and Hopes: An American Perspective on United States-China Relations.”
Journal of Contemporary China (2001) 10 (27) (October 2001), pp. 331-337.
“Global Trends Affecting US-PRC-Taiwan Relations,” in Gerrit W. Gong and Bih-jaw
Lin, Editors. Sino-American Relations in a Time of Change. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1994.
“Government China Specialists: Scholar Officials and Official Scholars,” in David
Shambaugh, Editor. American Studies of Contemporary China. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and M.E. Sharpe, 1993, pp. 176-195.
“Teng An Mong Jiken Gono Chugoku” (China After the Tiananmen Incident), in Asia
Research Council, Editor. Chugoku O Yomu (Interpreting China). Tokyo: Planet Books, 1990.
“Implementing Energy Policy: The Rise and Demise of the State Energy Commission,”
in David M. Lampton, Editor. Policy Implementation in Post-Mao China. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1987, pp. 190-224.
“Technology Transfer and US-China Relations,” in John Lewis and Zheng Weizhi,
Editors. Prospects for Peace and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region. Stanford, CA: Northeast Asia-United States Forum, 1986.
“Energy in China: An Overview,” in US Congress, Joint Economic Committee.
China’s Economy Looks Toward the Year 2000, Volume 2. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1986.
“Colorectal Cancer in Chinese and Chinese-Americans,” National Cancer Institute
Monograph, 69:43-46, 1985 (With AS Whittemore, S Zheng, A Wu, ML Wu, DA Jiao, CD Ling, JL Bao, BE Henderson, and RS Paffenbarger, Jr.).
“Science and Technology in China,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 40:8 (October
1984), Special Supplement. (With Denis Simon, Richard Suttmeier, and Leo Orleans).
“Energy in China: Paradoxes, Policies, and Prospects,” in Richard Bush, Editor. China
Briefing, 1982. Reprinted in Daniel H. Bays, Editor. US-China Trade Relations, 1983: Six Essays. Lawrence: University of Kansas, 1983. Japanese translation in Chugoku Keizai (China’s Economy), No. 213 (September 1983).
“US-China Scientific and Technical Cooperation: The Chinese Perspective,” in
China’s Scientific and Technological Modernization: Domestic and International Implications. Washington, DC: The Wilson Center East Asia Program, Occasional Paper No. 11, 1982.
“Energy and Development: China’s Strategy for the 1980s,” in Peter Auer, Editor.
Energy and the Developing Nations. New York: Pergamon, 1981, pp. 418-445. Japanese translation in Chugoku Keizai Kenkyu Geppo (China Economic Studies Monthly), No. 192 (December 1981).
“China’s Quest for Technology: Implications for Arms Control II,” in John Barton and
Ryukichi Imai, Editors. Arms Control II. Cambridge, MA: Oelgeschlager, Gunn & Hain, 1981, pp. 239-271.
“Recent Trends in Industrial Science and Technology Policy: An Overview,” in
Richard Baum, Editor. China’s Four Modernizations: The New Technological Revolution. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1980, pp. 61-101.
“The Social Science of Development and the Development of Social Science.”
Contemporary China 3:4 (Winter 1979). (With Genevieve Dean).
“Negotiating Scholarly Exchanges: The Stanford Experience.” Contemporary China
3:4 (Winter 1979).
“Developments in PRC Science and Technology Policy, October 1976-June 1977.”
Contemporary China 1:8. (With Genevieve Dean).
Developments in PRC Science and Technology Policy. Stanford, CA: US-China
Relations Program. (Published quarterly between January 1977 and July 1979; some issues with Genevieve Dean).

Reviews
Review of Managing Science Policy and Technology Acquisition: Strategies for China
and a Changing World. Journal of Asian Studies XLIV:4 (August 1985).
Review of Shenfen: The Continuing Revolution in a Chinese Village. Asia, September-
October 1983.
Review of Technology, Defense, and External Relations in China. Journal of Asian
Studies XL:2 (February 1981).
Review of Technology and Communist Culture: The Socio-Cultural Impact of
Technology Under Socialism. Journal of Asian Studies XXXVIII:2 (February 1979).
Review of China and the Major Powers in East Asia. Political Science Quarterly 93:3
(Fall 1978).
“Mass Campaigns, Past and Present.” Problems of Communism XXV:4 (July-August
1976).

Congressional Testimony (Unclassified Statements for the Record)
National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change to 2030. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, June 25, 2008 at www.dni.gov/testimonies/20080625_testimony.pdf.
Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community. House Armed Services
Committee, February 13, 2008 at www.dni.gov/testimonies/20080213_testimony.pdf
Global Security Assessment. House Armed Services Committee, July 11, 2007 at
http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20070711_testimony.pdf.
Hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Annual Threat Assessment, February
27, 2007 at http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2007_hr/022707transcript.pdf.
Security Threats to the United States. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,
February16, 2005 at http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2005_hr/021605fingar.pdf.
Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States. Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence, February 7, 2001 at http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2001_hr/s010207f.html.
“Transferring Technology to China: Patterns, Prospects, and Policy Implications.” US
Congress, House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittees on Science, Research, and Technology, and on Investigations and Oversight, Hearings, November 13-15, 1979.

Selected Addresses
“Anticipating and Preparing for Future Challenges,” World Affairs Council of Hilton
Head, SC, October 1, 2010 at http://www.wachh.org/accelsite/media/1603/Tom%Fingar%2010ct10.mp3.
“China on the World Stage,” Claremont College, October 25, 2010 at
http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/mmca/cur_fall_10.php.
“Remarks and Q&A by the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis &
Chairman, National Intelligence Council,” The Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC, November 21, 2008 at http://www.dni.gov/speeches/20081121_speech.pdf.
“Remarks and Q&A by the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis &
Chairman, National Intelligence Council at The Atlantic Council, Washington, DC, November 20, 2008 at http://www.dni.gov/speeches/20081120_speech.pdf.
Remarks and Q&A by the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis &
Chairman, National Intelligence Council at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, DC, November 18, 2008 at http://www.dni.gov/speeches/20081118_speech.pdf.
“Intelligence Analysis and Dissemination,” Miller Center of Public Affairs,
Charlottesville, VA, November 3, 2008 at http://millercenter.org/scripps/archive/forum/detail/4067.
“Keynote Address on Global Trends,” 2008 Intelligence and National Security Alliance
Analytic Transformation Conference, Orlando, Florida, September 4, 2008 at http://www.dni.gov/speeches/20080904_speech.pdf, pp. 18-32.
“Keynote Address on Analytic Transformation,” 2008 Intelligence and National
Security Alliance Analytic Transformation Conference, Orlando, Florida, September 4, 2008 at http://www.dni.gov/speeches/20080904_speech.pdf.
“National Intelligence Estimates,” New America Foundation, Washington, DC, June 4,
2008 at http://www.newamerica.net/events/2008/national_intelligence_estimates.
“China’s New Leadership: The Outlook for Politics and Policy,” Brookings Institution,
Washington, DC, April 7, 2008 at http://www.brookings.edu/events/2008/0407_china.aspx.
“Intelligence Analysis: Continuity and Change,” Council on Foreign Relations, New
York, NY, March 18, 2008 at http://dni.gov/speeches/20080318_speech.pdf.
“Intelligence Reform and the Iran NIE,” Commonwealth Club, San Francisco, CA,
February 25, 2008 at http://www.dni.gov/speeches/20080214_speech.pdf.
“Remarks and Q&A by the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis &
Chairman, National Intelligence Council,” 2007 Analytic Transformation Symposium, Chicago, IL, September 5, 2007 at http://www.dni.gov/speeches/20070905_speech.pdf, pp. 4-17.
“Remarks and Q&A by the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis &
Chairman, National Intelligence Council,” ODNI Open Source Conference, Washington, DC, July 17, 2007 at http://www.dni.gov/speeches/20070717_speech_3.pdf.
“Remarks and Q&A by the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis &
Chairman, National Intelligence Council,” The DNI’s Information Sharing Conference & Technology Exposition–Intelink and Beyond: Dare to Share, Denver, CO, August 21, 2006 at http://www.dni.gov/speeches/20060821_2_speech.pdf.
“Keynote Address,” Conference on “Building a ‘Harmonious Society’ in China: Non-
Governmental and Faith-Based Organizations as Agents of Social Change and Stability,” Center for Strategic and International Studies in cooperation with the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Washington, DC, September 26, 2005 at http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/050926_tomfingarremarks.pdf.

August 2011